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Polymarket, a platform for crypto-based betting on sports, entertainment, and political outcomes, has said that it has seen as much as $100m worth of cryptocurrency placed on the upcoming US presidential election in November so far. The amount signals significant interest in political races, with the rematch between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump one of the most hotly contested ones, and arguably the most divisive one in generations.
Trump’s firebrand personality and non-orthodox policymaking have elicited a strong response from voters across the political spectrum, prompting many to place down wagers on the upcoming race.
According to the numbers on Polymarket, 52% of all wagers have gone in support of the former president, with Trump given a significant chance to win over his opponent. This one-sidedness varies greatly from traditional political polling data which puts the two men shoulder-and-shoulder and perhaps gives a slight edge to Trump.
Yet, the realities are vastly different in the crypto space. For one, many crypto bettors are less risk averse, so they are not necessarily taking actual odds into consideration as much as they are operating on a “what if” scenario whereby they want to get a better yield out of their wagers. It’s also possible that crypto investors and bettors are generally more in favor of the Republican party and its presidential candidate.
Regardless, the huge volume of crypto moved through Polymarket on political betting demonstrates the significant size of this particular market. In the absence of political betting markets in the US, Polymarket is a good alternative even for US citizens. Polymarket has also been expanding its role as a prediction market platform, going beyond a single segment, and also offering financial market betting, and more.
As to more conventional odds of Trump securing a second stint in the White House, bookies do believe that he is the favored one, with +106 in conventional odds, trailed by Joe Biden at +200. This time, the odds between the two men are not as wide, meaning that anyone looking to go all in on Trump with crypto or otherwise might get burned. “Might” is the operative phrase here. Crypto investors' risk-taking nature means that the odds are looking good to them.
